Investing in stocks for beginners

I started investing in stocks from Jan 2018. I have a habit of learning/acquiring knowledge in one area and jumping onto another area frequently. This time, I wanted to at least focus on this for a year and acquire in-depth knowledge as much I could and here we are. I will share my thoughts on what someone would need as beginner to start. When & How to start are the biggest questions always. How to start can be a tricky question, as now there is no lack of information but information overload. I was helped by my good friends (Annamalai M & Gomathi Shankar M) in that aspect and the final question, When to start ? this is simple, There is no better day than today 🙂

What you need ?

10th grade math/English is more than enough for reading books, materials, reports and doing your analysis. You need to invest considerable amount of time(~8 to 10 hours per week) at least in the early years as you have pick up lots of knowledge through reading books or podcast or videos etc at the same time, analyzing and looking for companies to invest.  May be the hours you need to spent may be more in the initial years and it may go down in the future ( but I don’t know that yet 🙂 ).  You may not have the passion, but at least you need to have interest to keep learning or knowing about things. After a point, investing can be boring/individual task. You won’t/can’t be making money at all the times and you need that interest to keep you moving forward without the light. It’s good to have a buddy to you ask questions in the initial days/ bounce your thoughts/ discuss your ideas. Though google is there, this will speed up your learning. I’m lucky to have a friend, who was ready to help (Goms).

Is investing for you ?

So next, if you won’t be able to spend required time or focus every week and not interested in the working of markets/companies or regularly following them or you don’t have the stomach to see the invested amount going down or making a hard decision to sell a stock @ loss (you will understand this only when you see your hard earned money drops digit by digit) .

If you think, you don’t have those qualities, Then the best course of action is you should be investing your funds through the index funds, mutual funds or through a financial adviser. It’s very easy to lose your capital in the stock markets than increase it. Lots of the retail investors like us tend to lose our money like 20 to 30%  here and there and in the end it will come to nothing or gross under performance. So if you are not beating the index consistently, you are better off investing through other means and spend the time for something else. If you still want to do this as a hobby or time pass, you should do it as it yours money but that capital will eventually move to better investors.

Why should you give a thought to do this?

Stock markets presents an unique opportunity, you can as a novice, can compete with the best in the business with dis-proportionate assets/resources and still you can come out victorious. This is a typical David vs Goliath scenario. You don’t need a financial degree, number of people working for you or huge capital reserve. I don’t see this kind of opportunity in many of the business but I see it here. It’s something like in sports, a minnow can challenge the mighty with the sheer will of the imagination, dedication, hard work and perseverance.

Resources

So finally, for what you are here. There are abundant resource available in the internet/libraries/ book stores now . when the music exceeds the limit, it’s noise. So I’m hoping to give you some music.

Books

The Little Book That Builds Wealth: The Knockout Formula for Finding Great Investments

The Education of a Value Investor: My Transformative Quest for Wealth, Wisdom, and Enlightenment

The Dhandho Investor: The Low-Risk Value Method to High Returns

The Big Secret for the Small Investor: A New Route to Long-Term Investment Success

One Up On Wall Street: How to Use What You Already Know to Make Money in the Market

Video Channels/Podcasts

The investor podcast – their weekly show is very informative and have good executive summaries of the books in their websites as well

In Preston Pysh’s youtube channel, Both the investor podcast and invest like warren buffet series are good.

Investor archive had some good videos.

Sanjay bakshi’s blog also is a good mine.

Twitter

These are some of the good twitter accounts to follow.  I follow many more accounts with useful informations, you can find that out @vinodhkumar

@Iancassel

@safalniveshak

@dmuthuk

@morganhousel

@jposhaughnessy

@Sanjay__Bakshi

 

Finally

Learning to know about, how economy works and terms associated with it will help in connecting the dots. But All the resources mentioned here are the first step in your journey, for advanced learning there are more books/resources available. Happy learning !

 

2019 Tamil Nadu Lok sabha Election Prediction

I used to do an election prediction for every election in TN based on the public mood, newspaper predictions and their cumulative polls but this time, I tried to do the same prediction with the help of data. I have crunched the data from 2014 & 2016 elections and with the help of assumptions, arrived at some numbers.  There are 3 factors, which will play an important factor in an outcome of the elections.

1. Arithmetic plays important role in making sure that aligned parties of the coalitions getting the votes of the affiliated parties. This arithmetic calculation will ensure minimum votes for the alliance from the core vote bank of the parties.
2. chemistry between the cadres/supporters of the individual parties, which may be due to the ideologies , personalities, caste linings etc. in other words, Chemistry ensure the vote transfer of Party A to Party B and vice versa. Without the chemistry, what works on paper may not work in EVMs.
3.  Last but the most important factor is  the overrule mode of the non affiliated or sitting on the fence voters determine the outcome of the elections. Even though the last one is an important factor, unless there is a wave (usually an anti-incumbency) first 2 factors will determine the outcome. And it’s very hard to find the wave in the most of the elections.

Arithmetic

I will be first arriving at the baseline votes for each 39 loksabha constituency for individual parties. So that i can add them to figure out the votes for the alliance.

Baseline

• ADMK.  We will take the votes polled for ADMK in 2016 election as the baseline. As  the votes it got during the 2014 is part of the Wave( partly due to Modi vs lady rhetoric of Jayalathita and anti-incumbency of UPA 1 & 2), i’m taking 2016 which is much of a no wave election.
• DMK. We will take the 2016 elections as same reason as listed above
• INC.  DMK + votes in 2016 includes Congress votes
• BJP, PMK, CPI, CPI(M), KMDK – All these parties participated in the elections without any alliance either in 2014 or 2016. Whenever they contested alone, that is their base data
• VCK,DMDK,MDMK – They were party of DMK alliance in 2014 and MNK in 2016. So VCK = DMK + (2016) – DMK(2014) + INC (2014) but this logic gives us Negative votes. Does VCK brings negative votes? I think more plausible argument is DMK got more votes from unaffiliated in the 2016 than 2014. So we are not assigning any votes for VCK. Same for DMDK & MDMK, not able to get plausible data as they are part of some alliance for last 10 years and I feel DMDK has severely weaken from its peak in 2009. I assume, DMDK = MDMK + VCK. So these should cancel out each other.
• AMMK – This is TTV Dhinakaran’s Splinter group from ADMK. This is their first election ,so we don’t have any base line data and here is where we trend from the usage of strict historical data to projections. There are reports that his party is particular more stronger in Kaveri delta districts and some southern districts but unfortunately we don’t have the data or the ground presence to predict that. So I presume, He will split 5 to 10 % of Admk votes. I will allocating 0% in 1st set, 5%  in 2nd set and 10% in 3rd set to his party.
• MAIAM – This is kamal hasan’s new party. How much will he get ? And where will he get those votes only in Urban areas or also in the rural areas. I assume him to get 5 to 8%. There is one more important question is from where he will get his vote share. Will he split the DMK or ADMK votes ? . There are usually disgruntled voters, disillusioned with the existing choices ready to vote for the 3rd alternative in tamil nadu. So most of the voters wouldn’t have voted for DMK or Admk in any point, they were ready to support the 3rd alternative in all elections. I assume 75% of those votes from outside of the 2 parties and 25%(2% of total vote) comes from the those parties. Since there will be an anti-incumbency against the state and central governments, I may get tempted to assume more of the 2% comes from Admk + but his policies or the general perception of the MAIAM and Kamal in seems to pull the voters of the DMK than ADMK. So I assume they will get cut off equal votes from both the combinations and cancel it out or at most it will eat away 1% of the votes from DMK. So, if MAIAM can play a spoil sport, if DMK alliance is losing the constituency by 1% of less of the polled votes in an seat.
• NTK  – I don’t think, yet they are in the position to get votes from both these alliances but i believe Seeman will be growing very election.

Chemistry

• I Feel ADMK-BJP and DMK-Congress is a natural alliance, so vote transfer shouldn’t be problem. Only where i will be interested in looking at the vote transfer post poll scenario is DMDK and PMK are contesting. From the moment, Vijayakanth contested in Northern districts (Both parties are stronger here), there is some friction between the parties. Even there are some issues during the 2014 LS alliance in the cadre level.

Before we proceed to the predication. Some of the reasons why these assumptions will go for a toss.

1. This is the first election after the demise of both Karunanidhi and Jayalalitha. There are certain percentage of votes for and against these people. We don’t what is going to happen to those Negative and Positive votes. Will the vote bank who were voting for those faces, will keep voting for the same party even after the demise of their colossal leaders? We don’t know.
2. We are Considering AMMK,MAIAM & NTK as marginal players. We are discarding them to the 3rd place even before the election has started. Isn’t this unfair? Yes, but that’s how politics have played for 50 years in Tamil nadu. There might be a surprise for us there. TTV Dhinakaran may be able to pull out the RK nagar magic once more in some of the constituencies. He may do the ultimate MGR trick on ADMK. Kamal’s party has put some prominent persons have candidates, they have pull above their weight and get make more inroads than expected ( still I don’t think they will even have a 2nd place finish) . If Seeman’s brothers can transfer all their Social media presence into votes, Sky is the limit.
3. There is clear uproar against the TN rulers 2 years back. If that was the case even now, we don’t need any predication or data analysis, it would have been clear 35 + for the DMK + . But the perception has been changed, People have subdued( that’s what I hear), It has pulled off an impressive analysis on arithmetic terms. Is there a wave or not ? We will know on May 23rd
4. I’m not in Tamil nadu right now. So all my perception of people mood is from the Family & Friends, Media and Social media. All these things are skewed to our previous bias. So we keep accumulating data supporting our thesis. Popular waves can be picked up when you talk with multitude of people in Grocery shops, barber shops, buses etc. You need to be in ground to feel it. So I’m not adding any percentage for anti-incumbency to DMK alliance, Even though the goBackModi was popular. This is the most important reason, I predict the arithmetic calculation will not work.

Methodology

Before going to the predications, will explain how did i do this. I calculated the votes of the 234 assembly segments from 2014/2016 based on the base line explained above and played around it and arrived at the outcome. I created a console application using C# using the data from the official election commission site as input.

Predictions:

Based on the arithmetic alone and assuming sitting on the fence voters vote as they were doing previously used dataset , Here we go,

1. When AMMK gets 5%
   • DMK 6 to 10
   • NDA 29 to 33
2. When AMMK gets 10%
   1. DMK 9 to 12
   2. NDA  27 to 30
3. When AMMK gets 15%
   1. DMK 12 to 14
   2. NDA 25 to 27

If you don’t believe this numbers, you are not alone. Even, it was a quite a shock for me. But what i expect is actual numbers will be largely different due to the unaffiliated votes. and I also believe, number of unaffiliated percentage is steadily increasing and it should be harder & harder to judge the elections based on the arithmetic alone going forward.

Sitting on the Fence:

Sitting on the fence voters may vote for new parties but they wont vote for ADMK/BJP/DMDK/PMK alliance and 5 to 10% of votes should move away from them and good chunk of them should go to the DMK alliance. Based on this numbers, i believe wherever there is less than 1 lakh vote difference (this is from my analysis tool) between the alliances, DMK alliance will win.

Based on my assumption of  how unaffiliated voters vote, i predict

1. DMK 30 to 32
2. NDA  7 to 9.

I have 4 different numbers, each number has solid reasoning behind that. Lets see how much votes AMMK gets and how much unaffiliated voters will prefer DMK.

So i will write one more blog post election results using the votes polled in individual assembly level data and see what happened.

 

 

 

 

Chennai Book fair 2013

adieu Dravid

Though india was battling against a inevitable loss against the mighty australians , first thing i did after reaching home from school was to run towards the tv. Seeing laxman and dravid bat ,My first impression is why the match got abandoned suddenly- in a positive sense – or What was our score in the 2 nd innings – obviously in a negative sense -, but it took me few seconds to realize that i’m witnessing one of the greatest comebacks ever staged and making of 2 modern day greats . Dravid played the second fiddle to laxman in that innings and he always seem play that role to perfection in many occasions.
I was never a big dravid fan but always a big admirer.Sometimes,You can only admire but not love a person who is almost perfect – without faults – .He always resembled a textbook player , someone know all the pages in a book and recite bottom to top.He never had the flair of lara, elegance of laxman , cover drive of ganguly or charisma of dhoni but he showed us with his humanly qualities combined with uncompromising hard work it is possible to reach godly status.He is a case study for not only budding crickets but also for people who want to make best use of their abilities.He never really got the due respect among the media and fans , he deserved .He was made to keep wickets, shuffle his best batting position, dropped & recalled from international arena without either much thought or any hesitation from selectors , ridiculed in public for his slow pacing of the innings.But He never allowed these distractions to affect his game or his character ,he was always committed to the cause . Like a able & loyal soldier , he always held his fort -and his head high – abide all those rubbles and murmours.
During the good times ,he always comes between the angst of sehwag’s wicket and the impatient wait for the impending sachin’s arrival as a filler. As a saying goes, ‘true value of the man is known during the bad times’, Dravid’s service to the indian cricket is measured during the toughest of tough battles we have faced.Many of those battles were now a pleasant memory, thanks only to some of the brilliant innings of Dravid.
Though he went to hit a 22 ball 50 , had a good IPL career and bowed out from 20-20 with a hatrick of sixes, world would only remember – want to remember – Dravid jumping to Block a head high bouncer to the ground to make the ball stop as a dead log.Though Dravid batted as if , he has all the time in the world ,his time as one of the greatest batsman – if not, the greatest – has come to a end but his legacy as one of the finest gentlemen and ardent student of the game is there to continue for generations to come. We admire you !

India After Gandhi by Ramachandra Guha

This Book takes us through the pages  of  history from the moment india broke her  imperialistic  chains  to  india‘s surge to be one of the leading global economic power  .book captures the various events of india in her journey as a world’s largest democracy in an unbiased way.  Book starts explaining how India is  an unnatural nation due to the wide division based on its geographical ,linguistic , religion & caste .  and ends with ‘why india is united  ‘. Reading those chapters would make you spellbound-in a way proud- about the unique never before heard features of the most divisive nation, the world has ever seen  .

part 1  deals with the earlier stages of  nation building –drafting the constitution , uniting/incorporating  the various princely states with the main land – to be precise . 2nd part traverses with history which coincides with unprecedented growth of Nehru’s  stature  within  india and congress with the demise of sarder vallabhai patel . 3rd part deals with the democratic elections making way to rise and handing over the power from congress to communist and dravidian movements in the south india and india’s first and only loss in the hugely unexpected war from the hands of china .4th part gives us the rise of indira from a daughter of a nation’s last widely accepted leader to a charismatic leader herself  and how in her path split the largest party for her personal gains   . Indira was decisive in her actions , gave birth to Bangladesh ,tested the india’s first nuclear device,actively fought by JP and his team which ultimately led to emergency ,broke congress and made it a single family hegemony for years to come(until now) .in the last and 5th part author clarifies as he moves from ‘history’ to ‘historically informed journalism’ ,he  explores varies important events as babri masjid riots and gujarat riots .

Going by the title , I Assumed there would be no or little coverage  about Gandhi and wondered how would be a book- about india – be complete  . Though Gandhi lived -or we allowed him to live – barely 200 days  after india’s independence his activities in those days were not less important than his leadership for independence struggle . He is a  one man army-though he would have hated me to use the word army refer him – , when there is hindu-muslim riots in Calcutta , he walked numerous miles ,spoke and fasted in his ailing age and brought peace and harmony . would have we allowed him to live more ,he would have brought a end to riots in north India even in Pakistan . We -even world-would never get a leader of his stature again .  But even during his death he did what he failed to do all his life time , brought Nehru and patel together .

This book is definitely not a small-sized one  (approx 775 pages ),even though  it is a historical book  but it was by no means a boring one.Author made me live in those times ,some times I felt like reading  newspaper columns  on other occasions he made me walk with Gandhi in Kolkata ,with sheikh Abdulla in Srinagar ,with Nehru in Bombay ,with J P during emergency ,  into golden temple during operation blue star , with awe and shock  during demolition of babri masjid . This book has covered Kashmir issue well and it gives the great insight about the conflict through the ages .  It was a pleasure reading this one – to say the least – .

If you have slightest of habit to turning the pages of a newspaper beyond sports and movies  or having the passion to know about our nation,  I recommend this book not for reading alone but also keep this one as treasured possession in your book shelf forever

Is everything a Dream ? Part-1

Morning sunshine Revealed the time As 7 am. There were no clocks in the room, apparently nothing but human faces here and there. I was sitting in a corner of the room ,just opposite to a friend.I can feel the  pleasant weather outside,But my heart reminded me that our situation was not exactly pleasant. we both didn spoke a word  but our eyes did spoke many  . Facial sweats keep telling the outer world about our inner feeling. we were not alone in the rooms , there were 2 others accompanying us. They were man of charisma ,they didn’t show a moment of  restlessness as us but were throughly enjoying their stay at that room as sachin plays his cricket. Both are well built , equipped with modern machine guns in uniforms . They were discussing about various things ,everything was pretty much audible but nothing reached my brain. several million random thoughts keep on flashing across my mind. i want to talk , but i’m unable even to spell a word in that room.

The Silence was broken atlast , there are no more birds humming and a random vehicle’s sssh sound .There are large of movement of men outside .You can visualize the boots ramping and running hard , and fleeing birds . I can visualize the scene outside. Fear is catching me near. My heart was beating at a speed which was alien to  it before. one of the uniformed men , went to the balcony -showed us that we were in the first floor of the building -. He had a good look at the enviroment outside ,he casually reported back to the other one . Both of them had quick word with each other . It seemed that they were waiting for this moment , ready for all . They were busy packing their materials – i see nothing other than guns – and finally informed us that the whole building was surrounded by army troops !! and told us that there is noway to stop the inevitable and they are preparing for the final battle or in short -martyrdom- . They should have felt disgusted seeing the fear in our faces , didn’t care to talk more to us then . our eyes shone Propagating our impeding horrible end . I have never experienced this feeling , though everyone knows death is the ultimate end awaiting you most of us don’t have the courage to face it. i’m no more than a ordinary person . Many things /persons were in poping up in my memory but only one thing is there , ’ I Wanna Live ,Anyhow” .  I tried hard to wipe the fear of death from my face before those brave men  but , i failed miserably . i felt , fear of death is more than the death itself.  i felt ashamed to be a coward even when 2 teachers were showing me ,how to face death with a smile and die like a man . Eventhough in the extreme emotions and cowardly man inside me taking the lead, i don’t  want to leave them alone though i cant help them in any way. Though , i had many unfinished  ambitions/desires/duties left in this world , Surviving by Leaving them die alone, would leave me as a dead man forever . Instead of living as a Dead man forever , i Decided to Die as a man once for all ! ! .

I heard a Loud blast Suddenly – all important things happen suddenly only – , that was what i last heard or remembered about that moment. my vision went blank  , my senses ceased to work there after

I’m back to my senses ,Now but i can feel my hands shivering , body shacking. I was in my bed , in chennai !!!.It was a Dream !!! , i searched my cell and found that time has already passed 8 , i need to rush to the office . I have my own deliverables , own commitments , own issues to carry on and then this is just a Dream – i dont need to care much -, i started preparing myself for a another day @ office. A question raised in my mind, do everything is a dream , u need to carry on your works without any giving much thought to what ever happens around you ? . i  felt ashamed  , even when a million people lose their life in ethnic struggle about 100kms , i was busy nursing my own goals, ambitions , welfares …

for more of my views on what am i talking about here and  who are those 2 uniformed men came in my dream ? Let me write a second part of this article .

Why Am i still blogging !! ?

In the last eight months only 2 posts !! i’m definitely lacking the urge to blog nowadays . my laziness is the most important reason stopping me from blogging but off late , Twitter provides me a platform to let out my views in a simple way without much work.so i was more occupied with a simple tweet than a blog.

Then there are few reasons ,why i’m fighting with my laziness and blog . As the days move on and on,when you came to know about your limitations in a society , and more often you were pre occupied with your personal goals and life and seems to have no time for the happenings around the world ,it seems to be a vague way of living . There are somethings for which we can at least raise a voice of disapproval  or may be approval .

As   Rachel points to Bruce wayne ,

”   What you are underneath doesn define you

But what you do ,defines you “

There seems to be a huge difference between who we are and what we do .  more times , we are forced to be *otherone* borrowing/accepting the views of other ones due to numerous reasons. but i have learnt my own way to reduce the gap and i want to echo my views more vibrantly here   .

+1 Experience – Software professional

‘Remeber the past, enjoy the present ,plan for the future ‘

OCT 30th , 2009

our Team  were involved in a meeting . All of us were introducing ourselves, when my Turn comes, I said  ” with this day ,it is exactly 1 year with this organization ” . yeah , i have completed the first year of my profession career . when i told that  , numerous events crossed  my mind in split seconds . it has been a long year ( but it went very soon 😉 )

It all started with a call on Friday evening from the HR ,asking me to join on a Wednesday morning. when i got the call , i was in a dream world(i was sleeping actually 😛 ) . it seems to me, whenever i sleep in the afternoons , goodthings happen.(i should try this @ office 😛 ) my 12th result too came in the same fashion ..

it is nothing short of a full circle for me in the past 12 months for me. for the initial 4 months, i was trained . in that period i was put along with another 23 people in a batch(DN004) . when i finished my college life ,i vowed to myself  that i wont have any friends in my professional career. But life once again put me around a set of wonderful people.To say the least ,- they are just wonderful .i later rebuked myself for having such a prejudice and how big a mistake it would be if i have followed it.

I enjoyed a lot in the training days, i had one the wonderful days there though i was one the verge of exiting the company , clearing the exit tests at the last possible attempts.

Then i entered the next lap , projects .My goodness, do any of you people have got bored to the core by simply warming the chairs for months together. i have been.. we had computers , chat clients ,internet , i came sharp @ 9 and left sharp @ 5 45 but no work . as days moved on . it left nothing other than frustration of knowing nothing of the working model of the industry even after spending half a year in it.

But everything changed one day (but i always believe nothing happens in a day).i was mapped into a new project . it didn’t took me long to understand the ‘Real’ world inside the software industry.Our team is a small one and we need to do some enhancements with some pretty strict deadlines.we as a team need to stretch every day and night . our days extended ,nights shrinked and  weekends were only in calendars . But it look like a dream when i think of those days ,we manage to keep on spirits alive even in those hard days. i remember stepping to the office continuously for 33 days with a days off.  friends ,who  bought my dinner  daily for this late comer,who had time to open the door and talk words of concern in those late nights ,who have concern in their words while they knew about my situation , who scolded me to talk a day’s off @ any cost , really make my life worth living (obviously i cant just keep on going to office to keep my life worth living ,wanna do something else too 😛 ).    But i really cherish those hard days forever :)(but i want those days only in memories too 😛 ).

i really like my team , they treated me like a boy Krishna – Enjoying my mistakes and hailing my efforts – . they really gave me confidence  i needed , in my first project.

when we finished our project , Appreciation started pouring from every corner . i too got my share as a Award internally. then i see through the  warranty support of this Project and swiftly moved into a another project, where the construction part has been finished before i arrived there. I hardly had little time to understand Requirements or construction since QA has started his pressure already . in another angle , i hardly had anything that can be done on my own .

That  is my first year as software professional .. is there only green pastures , Full moons, pleasant breezes , in short only ‘vikraman‘ film in my journey in the past one life .if i tell like it, u need not be cal lightman to find that ‘I’m lying’  ,but i sometimes i feel there are only less space for emotions in work .so let me  keep that ranting in some other posts

vision 2011

9 30 Pm,Nov 5th,2009

Once i got down from the bus,i rushed towards the house.At times, i transformed myself into Hanuman -jumping water pools in my streets – sometimes into a Abimanyu – daring to run into the lightless water logged  streats full of unexpected creatures -. BTW, why i run this mad towards my home  ?

when i stormed into my home,Everyone had their eyes fixed on the Idiot box. Noone had the courtesy to Question the gasping friend :P. i too didn bother much about them . while throwing my shoes into a corner ,i jumped before the TV .! Sachin is batting on 167!! . i have already missed enough . which is destined to be -one of the – greatest innings under pressure. i dont want to miss more. but Life or if u called God has some other plans . Sachin got out Unfortunately on 175  and India lost by 3 runs . ( i joked after the match  , when Sachins plays like his old days , india too jus do that ) But this man only has the power to Stop 1 billion big  nation  , make millions of people run like sprinters,Train to stop for mins..

I became a Hardcore Cricket fan by watching him score tons of runs in 1996 world cup.But off late, i lost much of my passion towards cricket.i dont care to watch live feeds or highlights much just score cards in HINDU is enough for me. but when this man plays , i just love it..

20 years of International cricket, 30,000  runs , 100 centuries in the calling somewhere before he ends his career. love of numerous cricket lovers all over the world and worship of millions of indians. what more ? only thing that eludes him is the mother of all trophies -ICC world Cup-. He took india closest on 96 and a inch closer on ’03 but he needs to be another inch closer this time. i think, 2011 is not his last chance but the last chance indian cricket team to honour their Greatest son , true representative of the gentleman’s game, one the nations face  in he last 2 decades presenting him with the ultimate and lone gem missing in his throne .

we all love you sachin ..

General Elections-predictions

This is the third time , i’m showing my index finger with pride and satisfaction to the world.Even i voted this time , i was pessimistic about the polling percentages in the state . but very surprised and happy to see it jumped to 68% from late 50 % mark .

only  less than a day left to know election results , but it’s my time to predict the results 🙂

Tamil nadu

with no major wave – would ealam tamils wave against congress make a difference? – flowing towards any alliance , it seems as the contest of the votebank arithmetic and compaign power of the star campaigners . with arithmetic working in favour of  the AIADMK alliance and jayalalitha’s whirlwind campaign(Karunanidhi’s campaign being curtailed to hours ) drawing huge crowds , AIADMK expected to get about 25 seats , but with voting percentage increased considerbly-people who voted in excess doesnot belong to any votebanks – and and vijaykanth’s DMDK  eating into AIADMK’s opposition votes.  25-15 in favour of DMK may be the verdict . but what ever the results are , they would closely contest one .

        DMDK wont be winning any seats as expected but it would get good number of votes in kallakurichi ,cuddalore ,virudhunagar and kanyakumari . but even if it able to get same 8.33% as prev assembly elections , it would be a  big achievement

 BJP would be holding on to traditional vote bank but it is no way seem to get more votes than it. it to wont get win any seats but it may even threaten a second place finish in kanyakumari and ramanathapuram( purely due to thirunavukarasur’s charisma )

apart from that , i’m eagerly waiting for sarath babu’s votes (contesting in south chennai, where i live ) some youngsters seem to have voted for him and trichy’s results ( where i vote)

INDIA

it is simple as that , it is hung parliament 🙂 . but with both NDA and UPA expected to win around 200 seats but with fourth front (SP-RJD-LJP) expected to atleast 35-40 and left front getting a another minimum of 35 . it is most likely a non-bjp government . but would manmohan singh would continue to be the PM , this is tricky question thought NCP would be getting only 15 + seats , sharad pawar may likely to be a  option for PM with fourth front and left may pinch for non-congress PM  , with shiva sena to support for a marathi manoos . 

can sharad pawar achieve what he is denied in early nineties ? can Mamohan singh can hold on to the unexpected gift for another term ? but with my prediction going to dust and can L K advani jumping on the highest seat in his last and only chance ? but this is the one last time ,these 3 can aspire to became PM , there is no  second chance for them . though Sharad pawar has age on his side , situations may not be this fruital in the future.

NOTE 1 : even you would be reading this , this prediction may be un comparable to the results declared . but it may declare that i too join the elite number of  people who can’t predict the pulse of people in advance.