General Elections-predictions

This is the third time , i’m showing my index finger with pride and satisfaction to the world.Even i voted this time , i was pessimistic about the polling percentages in the state . but very surprised and happy to see it jumped to 68% from late 50 % mark .

only  less than a day left to know election results , but it’s my time to predict the results

Tamil nadu

with no major wave – would ealam tamils wave against congress make a difference? – flowing towards any alliance , it seems as the contest of the votebank arithmetic and compaign power of the star campaigners . with arithmetic working in favour of  the AIADMK alliance and jayalalitha’s whirlwind campaign(Karunanidhi’s campaign being curtailed to hours ) drawing huge crowds , AIADMK expected to get about 25 seats , but with voting percentage increased considerbly-people who voted in excess doesnot belong to any votebanks - and and vijaykanth’s DMDK  eating into AIADMK’s opposition votes.  25-15 in favour of DMK may be the verdict . but what ever the results are , they would closely contest one .

        DMDK wont be winning any seats as expected but it would get good number of votes in kallakurichi ,cuddalore ,virudhunagar and kanyakumari . but even if it able to get same 8.33% as prev assembly elections , it would be a  big achievement

 BJP would be holding on to traditional vote bank but it is no way seem to get more votes than it. it to wont get win any seats but it may even threaten a second place finish in kanyakumari and ramanathapuram( purely due to thirunavukarasur’s charisma )

apart from that , i’m eagerly waiting for sarath babu’s votes (contesting in south chennai, where i live ) some youngsters seem to have voted for him and trichy’s results ( where i vote)

INDIA

it is simple as that , it is hung parliament . but with both NDA and UPA expected to win around 200 seats but with fourth front (SP-RJD-LJP) expected to atleast 35-40 and left front getting a another minimum of 35 . it is most likely a non-bjp government . but would manmohan singh would continue to be the PM , this is tricky question thought NCP would be getting only 15 + seats , sharad pawar may likely to be a  option for PM with fourth front and left may pinch for non-congress PM  , with shiva sena to support for a marathi manoos . 

can sharad pawar achieve what he is denied in early nineties ? can Mamohan singh can hold on to the unexpected gift for another term ? but with my prediction going to dust and can L K advani jumping on the highest seat in his last and only chance ? but this is the one last time ,these 3 can aspire to became PM , there is no  second chance for them . though Sharad pawar has age on his side , situations may not be this fruital in the future.

NOTE 1 : even you would be reading this , this prediction may be un comparable to the results declared . but it may declare that i too join the elite number of  people who can’t predict the pulse of people in advance.

 

BLAST !!

i heard a big sound, when i was just entering a bank along with a friend .we 2 look each other frightened and just then noticed that most of the people in the street were concerned like us. this happened 2 days after the serial blasts in bangalore and Ahmadabad. this just showed the impact of panic , blasts have created in the minds of ordinary INDIAn. with another serial blast now in delhi.no more terrorism is on the tv and papers . they are knocking the doors of all of us . situation has arrived , as nation we need to take some hard decisions, we are peace loving country -no doubt in that – but we are facing a war on innocent people ,if we don’t react soon, we are about to get more pounding and our reputation as a sovereign nation in the international arena would be questioned. we need to prove all the world that we are a country which is capable of providing security to its citizens. these acts should be answered in the right way and hard way. those people who were responsible should be punished rightfully. but punishing them only , wont fulfill the cause . we need the curtail the roots of these organisations.. political gains should be no longer stand before the nation .

can we called this as the complete failure of our intelligence agencies ?? i don wanna get into a debate in that but in the present situation we need to back our agencies fully for further investigation and future welfare of us. what the terrorists have achieved by this blasts apart from creating panic and claiming innocent people. they have created hatred for certain section of people. that only they want ?

if they claim this , as a revenge for Gujarat riots. don’t they know ?? due to some of the power hungry and religious mad BIG people most of the people have been used in the situation of panic and over reacted . in NO WAY , i support what happened in there but we need to move on. don’t they know ?? where majority of the indians across the country and globe felt shy of what happened then .. don’t they know ?? due to their activities only innocent people shade their blood ,who once shed their tears for what happened then..

Actions against the terrorists and extremists should be no longer seen as action as against their religions.we should be hard in taking actions against these terrorists but only making security tighter and punishing people would not solve the issue.. we need to wipe away the ignorance of all people . we need to educate them the fruits and proud aspects in living as a multi-cultural society .we need to wipe out the common misconceptions of other religions within people’s mind . politicians and religious HEADS should not be searching for any political gain in all matters,in the US INDiA 123 nuclear deal too , some political parties claim that this deal as against indian muslims. how ??? if it is against indian muslims , it should be against indians too .. how ?? this is one of the worst of the politics we were seeing here

Dear blood thirsty terrorists , religious (MAD) heads and power hungry politicians
we may belong to different races ,languages and religions but we are proud in our diversity , we are proud to have ashoka ,akbar and raja raja cholan as our ancestors.. we are happy to have cake on chirtmas , biryani on ramzan and pongal on pongal .. kindly let us and our future generations to live happily on this religious harmony society where the only enemy for the people is the poverty,illiteracy and ignorance and not our neighbours from other religions .

 

oyatha alaigal

5 year CeaseFire agreement between LTTE(Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam ) and Srilankan government coming to a end on jan 16th signals the start the (what could be the) final battle between them . even before the jan 16th ,the undeclared war was on both fronts.Tamilselvan ,Head of political wing of LTTE killed in an airstrike in less than a month ago showed that srilankan government headed by rajapakse not willing for any political solution and made up his mind for a military solution and full-fledged war. Tamilselvan participated in peace negotations with srilankan government and he was the political voice of LTTE after the demise of anton balasingam. with the killing of tamilselvan and col charles , head of military intelligence within a time gap of a month, the srilankan government showcased that it has infiltrated into the ealem and it has gaining constant ground info and where abouts of TOP ltte leaders . with srilankan army advancing regularly, it is more likely LTTE chief prabakaran is getting ready for the big battle something like oyatha alaigal which he executed in 1996 and gained substaintial grounds from srilankan army.

LTTE ,which is the only terroist outfit to boost a capabity of air-strike and navy power now is largely supported by INDIAN governments both state and central during the 80’s till the execution of rajiv gandhi in 1991. during the early 80’s large number of LTTE cadres were trained by indian army . even politically there has been wide spread support for ltte and substantial substance aid were given during that time.. even , the late anton balasigam has told in the interview that LTTE chief prabakaran meet MGR in 1984(then CM of TN) and thanked for the help provided by tamil nadu people. but relation between LTTE and indian government with IPKF(indian peace keeping force) visiting the srilanka . the incidents happened there played spoilspot major impact on all parties involved and INDIAN government withdrew IPKF. LTTE then assainated rajiv gandhi for that, from there INDIA started as the silent spectator of events happening there..

the tamil people of ealem have suffered a lot and spent sleep less days/night there in battlegrounds and others were in other countries like refugee.. so what all tamil people want is, a political solution to this issue which would give the tamils of ealem a peaceful an prosperous living..

 

Gandhi Caste

                             Recently , in a PIL filed by salem based gandhian Supreme court rejected the creation of a new caste ‘GANDHI CASTE’ citing the reasons that powers of creation of caste like this is vested with parliament of India and not with SC.. there are many reasons why do we need Gandhi Caste at the present situation.

The caste politics have started to show up his ugly faces more frequently than ever before. Leaders like kamaraj and pasumpon muthuramalinga thevar are portraited as Leaders of a single community. they create a illusion that they belong to a single caste group. kamaraj has been forefather of many revolutions in educaution in TN and he is one leader from our state had the chance to be a PM.he is one of the corrupt-free politicians india have ever seen. but the case of thevar is more worse than kamaraj, many of we are beginning to forgot that he is the freedom fighter ,a close aide of Subash chandra Bose and a Leader of leftist forward bloc headed by subash . he is one of the persons , who subash belived firmly during the days of INA. but nowadays his name is used for a single community and giving his name to Madurai Airport causes so many problems since it simply means it gives pride to a caste.. but the persons who used his name for caste politics to be blamed here, they have create a hatred for him among other castes.a leader of national stature is being dumped as leader of single group

one of the other issues that is caused by the castes are communal differences among people.there r still places where some people(said to be lower castes)kept away from the mainstream of things.. recently i read a article which quoted that some section of ppl r restricted from accessing the village’s resource like drinking water,grossary shops an al.. so still untouchablity prevails .. by saying communal differences i don’t say only about untouchabilty, i have seen many ppl regardless of how educauted they are,how good they are,how rational they are, seem to have prejudice that this caste ppl ‘ll be like this, this ‘ll be like ..
even if we create GANDHI caste , most would argue that persons who dont create issues like this only join that.. but if we think of a long time vision like 50 years from now, this can attracte ppl and make your socity with more peaceful and communal harmony ..

 

land of gandhi to land of godhra

from this year onwards UN has decided to celebrate oct-2 as world non-violence day.. it is a very proud moment for all indians an followers of gandhian principles.. but the land he born is no longer remembered for him, but for some bad reasons.godhra an godhra riots have changed the way we look @ gujarat, how world look @ our securalism, how the future hindu-muslim relationships ‘ll be. it has been the fact that, the communal divide is evident in many parts of gujarat. the progress of the not evenly distributed between the people.. it is a stricking truth that, a person who does a murder out of anger is given life improsonment but people who have done mass well planned exection of people live happily.. it is a another fact that, out of 4000 booked riot cases only 10 have come upto to judgement level . it has been a common senerio that people affected by mass killing and riots were denied justice.. it is worst that, guj CM cant even apologise for the killing of so many public.. see this link for open statements by murderers

this is the not the first time , mass killings were denied justice .. same with the case of congress sponsored 1984 anti-sikh riots followings indira gandhi’s assault. but the situation is lot improved with a congress sikh becoming a PM . let’s hope that people of gujarat can forgot this issue an justice is given to all people who all suffered. an relgious harmony is restored in gujarat. whenever i heard of this riots, i ‘ll remember this picture one person begging for live an it ‘ll move any eyes into tears

 

nuke politics

now the latest crisis in the world is nuke politics surroundin n.korea..when it announced that it successfully tested nuclear weapon, crisis started.. now UNSC hav imposed sanctions on it.this is  the same old story  that happened when india also tested a nuke bomb. it seems a great joke(to me) when the countries that have large amount of nuke weapons with them,  criticises this because they feel this will bring instability to that region. but this had done some good on our part.all UNSC big brothers have been insisting a point that n.korea shouldn’t been compared with india. india also tryin to lobby with this politics so that it can finish a nuke deal with u.s ,successful indo-euro summit and finally establishing it as a global power ,worth a seat in UNSC..

 

vote

today i voted at 9.30 for the second time in 5 months , this is the first time i voted in a ballot paper. votin gives me a great joy and satisfaction as being a part of india’s democracy. but some questions arised in my mind , whether vote is valid(in a time where votes r selled like vegetables) , is democracy in india  turnin to a failure model ??  i try to find answers in succesive posts