May 2009


This is the third time , i’m showing my index finger with pride and satisfaction to the world.Even i voted this time , i was pessimistic about the polling percentages in the state . but very surprised and happy to see it jumped to 68% from late 50 % mark .

only  less than a day left to know election results , but it’s my time to predict the results :)

Tamil nadu

with no major wave – would ealam tamils wave against congress make a difference? – flowing towards any alliance , it seems as the contest of the votebank arithmetic and compaign power of the star campaigners . with arithmetic working in favour of  the AIADMK alliance and jayalalitha’s whirlwind campaign(Karunanidhi’s campaign being curtailed to hours ) drawing huge crowds , AIADMK expected to get about 25 seats , but with voting percentage increased considerbly-people who voted in excess doesnot belong to any votebanks - and and vijaykanth’s DMDK  eating into AIADMK’s opposition votes.  25-15 in favour of DMK may be the verdict . but what ever the results are , they would closely contest one .

        DMDK wont be winning any seats as expected but it would get good number of votes in kallakurichi ,cuddalore ,virudhunagar and kanyakumari . but even if it able to get same 8.33% as prev assembly elections , it would be a  big achievement

 BJP would be holding on to traditional vote bank but it is no way seem to get more votes than it. it to wont get win any seats but it may even threaten a second place finish in kanyakumari and ramanathapuram( purely due to thirunavukarasur’s charisma )

apart from that , i’m eagerly waiting for sarath babu’s votes (contesting in south chennai, where i live ) some youngsters seem to have voted for him and trichy’s results ( where i vote)

INDIA

it is simple as that , it is hung parliament :) . but with both NDA and UPA expected to win around 200 seats but with fourth front (SP-RJD-LJP) expected to atleast 35-40 and left front getting a another minimum of 35 . it is most likely a non-bjp government . but would manmohan singh would continue to be the PM , this is tricky question thought NCP would be getting only 15 + seats , sharad pawar may likely to be a  option for PM with fourth front and left may pinch for non-congress PM  , with shiva sena to support for a marathi manoos . 

can sharad pawar achieve what he is denied in early nineties ? can Mamohan singh can hold on to the unexpected gift for another term ? but with my prediction going to dust and can L K advani jumping on the highest seat in his last and only chance ? but this is the one last time ,these 3 can aspire to became PM , there is no  second chance for them . though Sharad pawar has age on his side , situations may not be this fruital in the future.

NOTE 1 : even you would be reading this , this prediction may be un comparable to the results declared . but it may declare that i too join the elite number of  people who can’t predict the pulse of people in advance.

Finally D-day has arrived ,the decision is in our hands .Let us participate in this mass festival -not for the well being of others but for ours- . Let us go to polling booth and vote for  whomever we think the best or atleast not the worst. if u feel noone is elgible to get your vote , go for  49 0 form but Let us make sure that we exercise our right . Let us vote